Does Instagram represent a formula for future startups? That might be a stretch, but check out the startup lessons from Instagram co-founders Kevin Systrom and Mike Krieger in this TechCrunch piece.

No doubt that there’s a book in the works. After all, Systrom and Krieger have created the blueprint for success, right?

I have my doubts.

Without discrediting the work of these guys, there’s just no way that you can predict success in the Age of the Platform. One could even argue that Instagram was a Black Swan.

Follow all of the rules and you still may come up short. There are no guarantees. It’s all about experimentation and embracing intelligent risk. And, yes, you have to be smart and more than a little lucky.