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The Folly of the Perfect Prediction

Never conflate the terms better and perfect.
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The Folly of the Perfect Prediction
Photo by Tomasz Frankowski / Unsplash

"Perfect is the enemy of good." –Voltaire


Why does Netflix spend so much money on trying to predict what its 50 million subscribers will watch? (The company famously offered a prize to anyone who could improve its recommendation engine.) Why has it devoted so many resources to collaborative filtering?

How Netflix generates recommendations is a bit of a black box, but the reason is fairly straight forward: Better predictions mean better business. Let me explain.

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