Which Software Vendors Will Survive the AI Disruption Tsunami?
You won't find many bigger fans of generative AI than yours truly—and Claude in particular.
Plenty of learned folks believe that single-purpose tools, like note-taking apps, will go the way of the dodo. In short, I agree. I'm on record predicting most niche software vendors will go poof in the near future. But what about enterprise systems? In this post, I'll explain why most of them will survive.
How Are You Using That App?
I will never claim to be an expert on every task management, productivity, and note-taking app out there. Popular choices include Coda, Bear, Obsidian, and Todoist. I do, however, know a thing or six about Notion. For the sake of argument, say that the Notion universe consists of only two groups: basic and power users.
Group #1
A software vendor's app relies heavily upon casual users. The majority of these folks use it in a limited way. Maybe 70 percent of people just scribble down the occasional idea in the note-taking app.
You needn't be a sorcerer to know how this movie ends: Claude Cowork and similar tools will make these simple apps obsolete. (Zapier, Make.com, and other third-party glueware are in similar boats.)
Group #2
Now let's move to power users. I'm talking about people who use the app or system for much more than taking notes. Notion performs dozens of functions for folks in this cohort. Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, or one of their competitors will ultimately cannibalize such a versatile tool anytime soon.
I firmly put myself in this camp. Organizations and individuals hire me to build bespoke systems for them. Notion serves as my CRM. I generate quotes and manage complicated projects (such as books) from it. It helps me evaluate service providers and plan trips. I could go on, but you get my drift.
For Notion power users, the idea that a newfangled AI tool can replace it is absurd.
Now, let's kick it up a level: If a single individual is unlikely to supplant Notion with Claude, then will even a medium-sized enterprise forgo its core systems?
Check out my 2023 book Low-Code/No-Code: Citizen Developers and the Surprising Future of Business Applications.
A Key Software Distinction
Generative AI tools are inherently non-deterministic. Sure, they'll continue to improve, reduce hallucinations, and ultimately reduce tool sprawl.
By contrast, CRM and ERP systems of record are deterministic. They are far too important to leave to chance. “I usually want to get employees' checks right,” said no payroll manager ever. What's more, these vendors behind these enterprise systems recognize the need for their wares to evolve.
CRM and ERP systems won't disappear.
Connecting the dots leaves one answer: enterprise systems will certainly morph. In particular, their UIs will undergo massive makeovers. It's folly, though, to think that they'll completely disappear. And plenty of others feel the same way.
Phil Simon
Simon's Law of AI Disruption
The more diverse the software, the more likely it is to survive the AI tsunami.
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