The Folly of Expert Predictions
Why are those who should ostensibly know better so frequently and spectacularly wrong? Why are expert predictions basically coin flips?
Previous audiences: Business and technology conferences
Why are experts in so many areas so frequently and spectacularly wrong?
In this talk, I draw upon my own extensive professional experiences, reading, and research to answer the following questions and more:
- Why are experts so utterly wrong so often?
- What are some of the most egregious predictions in the last century?
- Are expert predictions improving over time? If not, then why not?
- What can regular folks and experts do to make better predictions?
- Even in this era of Big Data, why are expert predictions still tantamount to a coin flip?
- What is probabilistic thinking? Why should our team, department, and organization consider embracing it?
- Why should I take management gurus with a 50-lb. bag of salt?